The last two months have seen huge change in Westminster. With Andy Burnham installed as Prime Minister and a renewed push from Government to devolve decision-making to locally elected leaders, the spotlight briefly shifted away from London.

However, recent announcements have reinforced the capital’s central role in delivering the Government’s growth and housing agenda, even when the word “London” is notably absent from official press releases.

As we await confirmation of whether Mayor Khan will seek a fourth term in 2028, potential successors are already beginning to position themselves.

With Reform UK yet to establish a meaningful foothold in London’s political landscape, and the Green Party still seeking to fully capitalise on its gains in May’s local elections, the question remains: could London once again become a two-horse race?

Andrew Clark – Director of Insights (andrew.clark@kandaconsulting.co.uk)

In This Issue:

• New London Plan sets revised housing target
• Mayoral call-ins: where City Hall is stepping in
• Affordable housing delivery crisis intensifies
• The GLA and Greenwich agree a fresh start for Charlton Riverside
• Runners and riders for the Mayor of London
• Inside City Hall

New London Plan Throws Some Curveballs

The draft London Plan and the revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) made this the most consequential summer for the development sector in many years.

Although consultation on the London Plan remains open until mid-October, questions were raised immediately about how the proposed strategy can be reconciled with the Government’s housing ambitions and the reluctance, if not outright resistance, shown by several boroughs.

At the heart of the debate is the Plan’s target of delivering 558,000 new homes between 2028 and 2037. This figure sits in an uncomfortable middle ground: significantly below the Government’s expectation of over 85,000 homes per year, yet substantially above London’s recent delivery rates.

The Plan acknowledges the shortfall but argues that Government targets could be achieved with substantial additional support from Government. Whether the £6 billion announced by Government last week is enough to bridge that gap is unclear.

There is no doubt that the draft Plan seeks to unlock growth across the capital. It identifies 30 brownfield Opportunity Areas, six Strategic Growth Corridors and 17 Tall Building Clusters, alongside a new tiered approach to affordable housing requirements and ambitious proposals for Green Belt delivery.

Mayoral Call-Ins: Where City Hall Is Stepping In

While the summer saw a slowdown in mayoral call-ins, activity is now expected to increase significantly.

September started with the approval by Deputy of Berkeley St William’s plans for Beckton Riverside, following previous approvals by Newham Council last year. The large-scale redevelopment of the Beckton Gasworks site will deliver 2,977 homes, with a minimum of 8.1% affordable housing and potential for up to 20% affordable provision if grant is secured.

The GLA has also approved Berkeley’s Motspur Park Gasholder redevelopment.

Kingston Council initially refused the scheme due to concerns about height, density and the impact on Metropolitan Open Land (MOL). However, the Mayor concluded that the public benefits of redeveloping a brownfield site to deliver hundreds of new homes, alongside new public spaces and connections, outweighed any negative impacts.

Although officers accepted that there would be some harm to MOL, they considered it less than substantial, particularly given the site’s existing developed character.

The decision once again demonstrates that concerns relating to density, infrastructure pressure and building height, while important considerations, are unlikely to outweigh substantial affordable housing delivery in the current policy environment.

Future Hearings

Stoney Wood Quarter (Barnet)
Following Barnet Council’s refusal of proposals for 463 homes, the Mayor recovered the application. A hearing is expected later this year.

Phoenix Academy (Hammersmith & Fulham)
The Mayor called in London Square’s application for 307 homes alongside upgraded educational facilities, following refusal by the Council.

Shoreditch Works (Hackney)
A commercial-led City Fringe development refused by the outgoing Labour administration despite officer support.

Archway Campus (Islington)
Refused by Islington Council on grounds including height and family housing provision, the scheme would deliver 178 homes, including 91 affordable homes, alongside 242 student rooms. A hearing is expected later in 2026.

Affordable Housing Delivery Crisis Intensifies

In July, the London Assembly Housing Committee reported that only 14,335 affordable housing starts had been delivered through the 2021-2026 Affordable Homes Programme.

This fell short even of the programme’s revised target range of 17,800-19,000 homes, despite approximately £4 billion of Government funding being allocated to date.

The issue of deliverability has become central to the ongoing debate surrounding the Mayor’s housing record. Critics argue that City Hall is failing to translate planning consents into completed homes, while the GLA points to record levels of planning permissions and highlights wider market challenges affecting build-out rates.

The GLA also notes that 32,081 homes approved under the 2016-2023 Affordable Homes Programme remain incomplete, representing 27% of all starts under that programme.

The Mayor has acknowledged the viability challenges facing the sector and has supported the Government’s temporary measures to reduce affordable housing requirements over the next two years.

Nevertheless, polling indicates growing public concern over London’s housing crisis and increasing dissatisfaction with overall performance.

Individual performance across boroughs remains highly uneven. Tower Hamlets recorded the highest number of GLA-funded affordable housing starts since 2023, delivering 1,484 homes. By contrast, Kensington and Chelsea, Harrow, Bexley and Richmond upon Thames each recorded fewer than 60 starts.

With housing delivery and affordability now major priorities for both Westminster and City Hall, progress over the next two years is likely to impact the next mayoral contest.

The GLA and Greenwich Agree a Fresh Start for Charlton Riverside

Image credit: Royal Borough of Greenwich

Transport for London, the GLA and Greenwich Council have announced a formal partnership to unlock the regeneration of Charlton Riverside, the large industrial corridor between Greenwich Peninsula and Woolwich.

They have signed a Memorandum of Understanding and established a Strategic Partnership Board while beginning work on a wider public sector landowners’ partnership.

One of London’s largest remaining undeveloped stretches of riverside land, Charlton Riverside has long been identified as a major regeneration opportunity. Yet progress has consistently proved challenging.

Following a series of earlier masterplans, local campaigning resulted in the adoption of planning guidance, including height restrictions generally limiting development to between three and six storeys. Combined with extensive infrastructure and environmental remediation requirements, this many schemes difficult to deliver.

The stalemate was partially broken in 2022 when the Hyde Group secured approval for the 1,200-home Herringham Quarter scheme. However, progress on site has since been limited, with the developer recently seeking amendments to building heights.

The new partnership potentially offers a more coordinated route forward. As a significant landowner, Greenwich Council is well placed either to lead regeneration directly or to procure a strategic development partner capable of driving delivery across the wider area. The challenges, however, remain considerable.

Just days after the announcement, Luxembourg-based developer Tyburn RWC submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment scoping request for a 100,000 sq m data centre within the heart of the proposed regeneration area. 

Greenwich Council has already expressed strong opposition to a data centre of this scale here, highlighting that significant hurdles remain before Charlton Riverside’s full potential can be realised.

Runners and Riders for the Mayor of London

With the next mayoral election still two years away, discussion of potential candidates may appear premature.

In reality, the contest is already beginning to take shape, against the backdrop of a new London political environment in which Labour is no longer the dominant force in local government it had been since 2010.

The Green Party made significant gains, particularly across Inner London, securing more than 20% of the vote. Meanwhile, Reform UK secured 13%, demonstrating that, while falling short in terms of councillors, it could still play an influential role under the supplementary voting system. The Conservatives remain a threat but will need the Greens to impact Labour, while they fight off the threat of Reform.

Reform UK

Laila Cunningham’s candidacy was confirmed in January 2026, almost two and a half years before the next election.

A former Westminster councillor and CPS prosecutor, Cunningham has received strong backing from Reform Leader Nigel Farage and has a background and profile that is significantly different to a typical Reform candidate.

Reform’s poor showing in the recent London local elections puts them on the back foot in the contest, but they will be hoping to siphon off votes from the Conservatives in parts of outer London to give themselves a fighting chance.

Image credit: Reuters

Conservatives

Sir James Cleverly has emerged as the frontrunner with last week’s announcement that he would step back from his Shadow Cabinet role to run for the Conservative nomination.

A former Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary and London Assembly Member, Sir James hails from the moderate wing of the Conservative Party.

Badenoch has signalled that she would like the candidate to have experience in policing and law and order, a track record in business and experience outside of the political arena. Cleverly ticks all these boxes.

Ex-police and crime commissioner Festus Akinbusoye has also thrown his hat into the ring and has a formidable track record but lacks the profile and name recognition of Cleverly and may struggle to win the nomination.

Image credit: House of Commons

Green Party

While Mayor of Hackney Zoe Garbett remains the obvious candidate, following her candidacy in 2024, her recent elevation to lead Hackney means that that this may not be as straightforward as it appears.

It had also been suggested Zack Polanski may seek to contest the role himself, building on his public profile and Assembly experience. However, his immediate focus is clearly on Westminster and the forthcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

Liberal Democrats

There has been little public discourse regarding the Liberal Democrat candidacy to date.

It is unlikely that a sitting MP will seek the role and the likelihood is that a current Assembly Member will be nominated, with Hina Bokhari the most obvious choice.

To date no one has openly expressed an interest in public and a decision is likely some way off.

Labour

Perhaps the biggest question mark of all is whether Mayor Khan will run for another term.

While he has yet to suggest otherwise, his recent elevation to the House of Lords and his knighthood last year suggest that the Mayor could be considering moving on.

Recent conducted by YouGov suggests the Mayor is perceived to be doing ‘badly’ by 47% of voters and ‘Well’ by 42%. This is a stronger position for the Mayor than when he won his historic third term in 2024. At that point, he was trailing on the same metric 52% to 36% and still won a comfortable victory.

If Khan chooses not to run there are others beginning to position themselves. Dawn Butler has made no secret or her intentions. Former Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy has also begun to make noises that he may put himself forward should Khan decide against running.

Khan has until late spring 2027 to inform the party of his decision.

Inside City Hall

Mayor’s Question Time – 16^th July

Discussion was dominated by the draft London Plan and the Mayor’s decision to temporarily reduce affordable housing requirements.

Assembly Members argued that even a temporary reduction risks lowering expectations for future development. The Mayor defended the policy, pointing to the challenging market conditions facing the development sector.

He also highlighted a range of support measures, including £324 million from the City Hall Developer Fund and more than £1 billion in low-interest loans aimed at supporting housing delivery.

The Mayor also faced questions on crime and his continued opposition to Heathrow expansion.

Housing Committee 2^nd September

At this month’s meeting, members focused on the London Plan, with each political group using the session to press its own priorities.

Outer London members challenged the Plan’s Green Belt targets, contrasting them with the Mayor’s previous brownfield-first position. The response was that some lower-quality Green Belt release will be needed to meet housing need, particularly where sites sit close to existing infrastructure.

Green members focused on reduced affordability thresholds, warning that lower requirements could price out poorer Londoners. The Deputy Mayor argued that without action on viability, spiralling costs risk bringing new-build delivery — affordable and market alike — to a standstill.

These dividing lines are unlikely to shift significantly before the 2028 mayoral election.

GLA Planning and Regeneration Committee September 4^th

Jules Pipe and members of the London Plan team appeared for a scrutiny session on the Draft London Plan.

Issues explored during the discussion included the plausibility of the London Plan’s target for 558,000 new homes (as compared to the higher notional target set by the Government for London); the protection of existing parks on Green Belt; the Plan’s promotion of ‘mid-rise’ housing development; and policy on data centres.

In the meeting, the team confirmed the proposed timescale for next steps, including submission to the Planning Inspectorate by early spring 2027; an examination in public in the summer and autumn of 2027; and target adoption by early 2028.