Tim Donovan | Former Political Editor, BBC London.

Fresh from winning the Makerfield by-election with a majority of more than 9,000 over Reform UK, Andy Burnham has once again thrust himself into the centre of British politics.

While his return to Westminster has fuelled speculation about Labour’s future leadership, it also raises an important question for the capital: what would a Burnham ascendancy mean for London?

Read Tim’s thoughts below.

A mayor has once again taken British politics by the scruff of the neck. Only this time it isn’t London’s mayor. Andy Burnham is the inverse of Boris Johnson. The potential renovator of the Red Wall that the ‘Blonde One’ toppled.

Not immediately obvious, there are similarities between Andy Burnham and Boris Johnson too.

Politically agile, eager to please and readily influenced by the last conversation, ideologically light and fluid, with the ability to appeal broadly, and to some unlikely constituencies.

Would Burnham disagree with the ‘Johnsonian’ philosophy of cakeism: trying to ‘have your cake and eat it’?

To labour the point…this is the mayor of a northern conurbation, not of the UK’s only global city. Does it matter to Londoners it’s not their city and leader in the spotlight?

While ‘Manchesterism’ fills the airwaves and columns, London remains in defensive mode, fighting off negative images of lawlessness, whether or not generated by dodgy foreign bots.

In his victory speech this morning Burnham said he had unfinished business: to ensure the North fulfilled its potential. 

The London Question

But will Burnham be bad for London, or is his success the reason for some of its resentment? Why exactly has the North-South divide narrative taken such a firm hold, and why have London’s political leaders found it so difficult to counter?

It can be easy to mount a case against Burnham for deploying  rhetorical anti-Londonism, just not a particularly useful one. In his shoes, what would you have done?

In the past he has presented Heathrow expansion and Crossrail (the Elizabeth line) as unfair, and railed against the cancellation of the HS2 link to Manchester. He emotively and successfully framed Covid lockdown measures as harmful to his patch. His interest in reforming council tax and moving to a land value tax could disproportionately affect London.

London-based commentators accuse him of over-simplification, arguing that it ignores pockets of real poverty within the capital and conflates London as a whole with the Westminster and Whitehall bubble. A bubble of which Burnham, for so long, was an enthusiastic inhabitant and now frequently criticises.

But are these surprising positions for Burnham to have taken, and would they survive the realities of national government?

Could Burnham ‘Save’ Labour?

Electorally, his approach has worked in Greater Manchester. Two thirds of voters backed him for a third mayoral term, far eclipsing Sir Sadiq Khan’s victory in London.  His Makerfield result, winning 55% of the vote and increasing Labour’s vote share while in government, has reinforced his standing in the region – but polling indicates his growing appeal well beyond there.

If you are Labour in London after those recent local election results, what’s not to like? Does London not warm to a winner? Might a potential Burnham bounce even shift the mood and strengthen Labour’s chances of holding onto the mayoralty in 2028?

It is not as if the current Prime Minister, despite representing a London constituency, has been seen as particularly focused on the capital, nor has the Sir Keir Starmer-Sir Sadiq Khan partnership been viewed as yet delivering the change London was promised.

But with its sizeable party membership and large bloc of Labour MPs, it seems unlikely that Burnham would willingly alienate London or take it for granted.

On the contrary, we may even see an element of over-compensation as Burnham seeks to broaden his appeal and address perceptions that he has been overly critical of the capital. 

So perhaps stand by for a Burnham charm offensive in the City, and a renewed outreach to business, including the built environment sector, whose support he would need to deliver the homes he is promising.

Burnham says he wants more devolution, more social housing and more affordable transport. To deliver that nationally, his Manchester story can only take you so far.

Let’s see how long it takes before he is giving his full-throated backing to the Bakerloo line extension.

Could Burnham soon be appealing to more voters and injecting some life into Labour in London?