Reform UK has taken the unusual step of announcing its London mayoral candidate more than two years early. While London might seem an unlikely battleground, Reform believes it can seriously challenge the Mayor in 2028 – and views this May’s local elections as a launchpad.

In May, Reform is expected to secure a foothold across outer London. In some boroughs it will target outright control; in others it could determine who governs by reshaping three‑way contests. Across much of suburbia, traditional shades of blue risk turning turquoise.

The turquoise tide from Kent – Bexley and Bromley

After all but wiping out the Conservatives in Kent in 2025, Reform is now targeting Bexley and Bromley – politically and culturally part of London’s “Kentish fringe.” 

Both boroughs voted heavily for Brexit and are dominated by car‑owning, commuter‑belt communities. Reform’s pitch – that this election is the first step to removing Sadiq Khan from City Hall – appears to be landing, with the party on course for major gains in both boroughs.

I can’t believe it’s not Essex – Havering

North of the river, Havering is Reform’s top target. The borough’s long‑standing affinity with Essex has been amplified by newly‑defected Reform MP Andrew Rosindell claiming Havering will “rejoin Essex” under a future Farage government.
The Borough has been in No Overall Control for over a decade and has always had a strong ‘independent’ streak. The Havering Residents’ Association (HRA), which currently runs the Borough as a minority group, embodies this fierce localism. 

Yet, it has become increasingly clear that even the HRA doesn’t believe it can hold back the tide, with current council leader Ray Morgan announcing he will stand down at May’s election.

Reform is expected to make massive gains in Essex council elections this May so there is a real possibility, with Norfolk and Suffolk also at the ballot box, everything east of Havering could turn turquoise on the 8th of May.

Reform as a disruptor – Hillingdon

Hillingdon embodies Reform’s potential impact in London as a disruptor. 

While Hillingdon has been under Conservative control for 20 years, two of its three parliamentary constituencies voted Labour at the last general election and demographically it has been trending away from the Conservatives for the last decade.

With the council finely balanced between Labour and the Conservatives after 2022’s elections, the inclusion of Reform into the electoral mix could see the balance of power tilt towards Labour as Reform bleeds Tory votes. 

There’s also the prospect that Reform could pick up a handful of seats, which may leave it holding the balance of power in a No Overall Control scenario.

What does this mean for politics and planning?

Reform is running its outer London campaign as a referendum on Sadiq Khan, appealing to residents who feel City Hall’s policies – ULEZ expansion, transport priorities, environmental levies – don’t reflect suburban realities. The party is presenting itself as anti‑waste, pro‑motorist, anti‑crime and firmly opposed to “London political correctness.”

On planning, however, Reform will face tension between its national pro‑growth rhetoric and the local expectations of older, suburban, car‑dependent voters. Local Reform groups have already opposed Green Belt development – a theme likely to continue across their target boroughs.

If 2025 is a guide, new Reform‑led councils may take time to settle, as inexperienced councillors grapple with internal dynamics and the machinery of large local authorities. A frostier relationship with City Hall is also likely, encouraging greater Mayoral intervention on strategic schemes.

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